Eberlicious
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2009 NBA Draft Tiers
This is generally how I approach a draft class. I will collect the players who fit into 1 of 3 categories.
(19 year old // 18 Year Old) Position / Height / Weight / Inside / Outside / Handles / Defense / Rebounding
Tier 1
These 3 players give you the best chance to land a perennial All Star. Harden is the most well-rounded scorer in this class with elite potential. His handle rating could be attributed to low passing, or he will be a turnover machine. Wall having the second highest inside as a PG and most likely some of the best athletics in the class gives him the best chance to be a franchise PG. Vucevic starting as the top rebounder and top 20 in the other 2 key big man categories gives him an excellent base. I am guessing his pot will be sitting between 68-72 but with a chance to boost twice I am treating him as if he has low A pot. I Think these are the clearly 3 best prospects in this class.
Tier 2
In this next tier we have Sanders and Turner who would have been in contention for the #1 pick if they were teens, or if Turner had at least one elite category, unfortunately he is average across the board, and we are banking that the #1 pot in the draft puts in work for him. Middleton is only in this tier because he is the second highest pot player as an 18-year-old, this is where stars can be made, but he is incredibly raw with some rough scoring ratings. He is 2 years away from being 2 years away.
Tier 3
Tier 3 starts with Middleton-lite in Gordon Hayward. He is a little more polished and a year old, but with 20 less potential. He HAS to boost to become a legit player in the league, otherwise probably destined as a solid rotation piece, in this draft that is a risk you should probably take though. The rest of these guys are a mix of teens, high pot guys, and Hendrix who will be an immediate contributor, like Hibbert with a lot less pot. Crowder would be in a higher tier if he had better outside, but he could end up being a very intriguing FBB player. Monroe would be my bet to beat the rankings on this one as I find the Defensive ratings to be very misleading.
Tier 4
This whole tier is just a bunch of solid dudes with not a lot of upside. They will most likely all stick in the league and be good contributors to competing teams. Vasquez probably has the best chance to be an above average player with his elite handles and above average inside rating, however Vaty could end up being a great 2nd big on any team. Mullens and Luc Mbah a Moute will be curious to follow as they progress as they are nearly identical prospects with the only large disparity being their inside game.
Tier 5
This is a quick tier to explain, if these guys weren’t teens I wouldn’t want either on them, Rubio shouldn’t even be a first round pick, but the potential to boost is too important to let him slip too far. Bottom line these guys need a lot of things to go right to become decent players in FBB.
Tier 6
There is an argument to be made that the top 3 here should be in their own tier, however in the backend of the draft there is enough subjectivity to team needs and potential vs polish and so on that I think any one here could be argued over each other. Hines has the lowest pot in the draft and will probably not improve at all, but he will be an immediate bench big and if we can see him go +1 or 2 before his next contract he should be around for a little while. If Kelvin Lewis didn’t have such atrocious inside scoring, he would be far more desirable, but with top 25 potential he would be my pick to be the biggest riser in future redrafts from this group.
Tier 7
These guys are just your hail marry throws. Picking some guys with a couple above average to elite categories or with decently high potential, there are worse players you could add at the end of the first round.
Who did I miss, who did I undervalue, who did I overvalue? Who would be the worst player from 2008 to go #1 in this draft? As pre-TC prospects I would argue Rose, Butler, DeRozan or Hibbert could have gone #1 in this draft. With Kemba, Lillard, and Steph as absolute locks.
This is generally how I approach a draft class. I will collect the players who fit into 1 of 3 categories.
- Teen
- Top 25 Potential
- Top 15 in any one skill
(19 year old // 18 Year Old) Position / Height / Weight / Inside / Outside / Handles / Defense / Rebounding
Tier 1
1 | John Wall | PG | 6'4'' | 210 | 2 | 83 | 1 | 21 | 51 | 4 |
1 | James Harden | SG | 6'5'' | 220 | 6 | 24 | 35 | 59 | 43 | 3 |
1 | Nikola Vucevic | PF | 7'0'' | 260 | 21 | 79 | 78 | 20 | 1 | 16 |
These 3 players give you the best chance to land a perennial All Star. Harden is the most well-rounded scorer in this class with elite potential. His handle rating could be attributed to low passing, or he will be a turnover machine. Wall having the second highest inside as a PG and most likely some of the best athletics in the class gives him the best chance to be a franchise PG. Vucevic starting as the top rebounder and top 20 in the other 2 key big man categories gives him an excellent base. I am guessing his pot will be sitting between 68-72 but with a chance to boost twice I am treating him as if he has low A pot. I Think these are the clearly 3 best prospects in this class.
Tier 2
2 | Larry Sanders | PF | 6'11'' | 235 | 25 | 91 | 95 | 22 | 4 | 5 |
2 | Khris Middleton | SF | 6'8'' | 222 | 64 | 53 | 50 | 27 | 42 | 2 |
2 | Evan Turner | SG | 6'7'' | 220 | 22 | 62 | 31 | 46 | 27 | 1 |
In this next tier we have Sanders and Turner who would have been in contention for the #1 pick if they were teens, or if Turner had at least one elite category, unfortunately he is average across the board, and we are banking that the #1 pot in the draft puts in work for him. Middleton is only in this tier because he is the second highest pot player as an 18-year-old, this is where stars can be made, but he is incredibly raw with some rough scoring ratings. He is 2 years away from being 2 years away.
Tier 3
3 | Gordon Hayward | SF | 6'7'' | 225 | 35 | 45 | 47 | 28 | 37 | 17 |
3 | Ekpe Udoh | PF | 6'10'' | 245 | 34 | 87 | 79 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
3 | Greg Monroe | C | 6'11'' | 265 | 9 | 90 | 40 | 61 | 3 | 6 |
3 | Richard Hendrix | C | 6'9'' | 264 | 12 | 97 | 85 | 2 | 2 | 51 |
3 | Jae Crowder | SF | 6'6'' | 235 | 16 | 80 | 51 | 1 | 16 | 29 |
Tier 3 starts with Middleton-lite in Gordon Hayward. He is a little more polished and a year old, but with 20 less potential. He HAS to boost to become a legit player in the league, otherwise probably destined as a solid rotation piece, in this draft that is a risk you should probably take though. The rest of these guys are a mix of teens, high pot guys, and Hendrix who will be an immediate contributor, like Hibbert with a lot less pot. Crowder would be in a higher tier if he had better outside, but he could end up being a very intriguing FBB player. Monroe would be my bet to beat the rankings on this one as I find the Defensive ratings to be very misleading.
Tier 4
4 | Marcus Morris | PF | 6'9'' | 235 | 5 | 76 | 76 | 29 | 12 | 14 |
4 | Greivis Vasquez | PG | 6'6'' | 217 | 32 | 26 | 2 | 64 | 66 | 27 |
4 | Ludovic Vaty | PF | 6'9'' | 240 | 3 | 92 | 96 | 23 | 5 | 42 |
4 | Byron Mullens | C | 7'0'' | 270 | 26 | 70 | 88 | 37 | 17 | 9 |
4 | Luc Mbah a Moute | PF | 6'8'' | 230 | 46 | 85 | 89 | 42 | 19 | 10 |
This whole tier is just a bunch of solid dudes with not a lot of upside. They will most likely all stick in the league and be good contributors to competing teams. Vasquez probably has the best chance to be an above average player with his elite handles and above average inside rating, however Vaty could end up being a great 2nd big on any team. Mullens and Luc Mbah a Moute will be curious to follow as they progress as they are nearly identical prospects with the only large disparity being their inside game.
Tier 5
5 | Ricky Rubio | PG | 6'3'' | 190 | 97 | 52 | 4 | 13 | 72 | 11 |
5 | Reggie Jackson | PG | 6'3'' | 208 | 36 | 61 | 5 | 60 | 52 | 37 |
This is a quick tier to explain, if these guys weren’t teens I wouldn’t want either on them, Rubio shouldn’t even be a first round pick, but the potential to boost is too important to let him slip too far. Bottom line these guys need a lot of things to go right to become decent players in FBB.
Tier 6
6 | Ian Mahinmi | C | 6'11'' | 262 | 20 | 95 | 100 | 44 | 9 | 21 |
6 | Kelvin Lewis | SG | 6'4'' | 203 | 99 | 14 | 52 | 14 | 64 | 24 |
6 | Novica Velickovic | PF | 6'9'' | 240 | 8 | 74 | 91 | 26 | 13 | 53 |
6 | Jordan Farmar | PG | 6'2'' | 180 | 79 | 16 | 9 | 84 | 94 | 34 |
6 | Rastko Dramicanin | PF | 6'8'' | 230 | 13 | 57 | 77 | 30 | 30 | 45 |
6 | Walter Hodge | PG | 6'0'' | 170 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 39 | 91 | 80 |
6 | Kyle Hines | PF | 6'6'' | 230 | 1 | 100 | 86 | 5 | 11 | 100 |
6 | Michael Jenkins | PG | 6'3'' | 195 | 61 | 30 | 32 | 9 | 69 | 44 |
There is an argument to be made that the top 3 here should be in their own tier, however in the backend of the draft there is enough subjectivity to team needs and potential vs polish and so on that I think any one here could be argued over each other. Hines has the lowest pot in the draft and will probably not improve at all, but he will be an immediate bench big and if we can see him go +1 or 2 before his next contract he should be around for a little while. If Kelvin Lewis didn’t have such atrocious inside scoring, he would be far more desirable, but with top 25 potential he would be my pick to be the biggest riser in future redrafts from this group.
Tier 7
7 | Ante Tomic | C | 7'1'' | 225 | 10 | 96 | 84 | 85 | 21 | 26 |
7 | Ish Smith | PG | 6'0'' | 175 | 56 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 75 | 18 |
7 | Shy Ely | SF | 6'5'' | 205 | 96 | 4 | 33 | 43 | 58 | 65 |
These guys are just your hail marry throws. Picking some guys with a couple above average to elite categories or with decently high potential, there are worse players you could add at the end of the first round.
Who did I miss, who did I undervalue, who did I overvalue? Who would be the worst player from 2008 to go #1 in this draft? As pre-TC prospects I would argue Rose, Butler, DeRozan or Hibbert could have gone #1 in this draft. With Kemba, Lillard, and Steph as absolute locks.
