brooks
Hornets
- Messages
- 4,693
Alright, welcome back everyone! I had some free time this evening, so I decided to take the team stats that were generated in SIM 1 and apply it to the PLS regression model that I previous made. I've updated the training set to include all team stats from 2002-2007. While this model seems to be fairly good at identifying underdogs and teams that are overperforming, please keep in mind that the results will likely change as teams play more and more games. My goal is to provide updates for Sim 1, Sim 4, and after Sim 6.
NOTES
#1 -- Of all the teams at the bottom of the pack, the Pistons look to be in the best position to improve their record over the next few sims. I'm not sure if they will be able to be a competitor, but at the bare minimum they should improve.
#2 -- 76ers and Heat are pure trash. The model has not seen teams with team stats like these, hence the negative wins. May be early season noise, but things are looking good to secure the best spots in the lotto.
#3 -- As is apparent when looking at their team page, the Clippers are clearly under performing. They will get better and better record-wise as the season progresses.
#4 -- I have the Spurs and Cavs together here, as they are the two "top" teams in the model that are underperforming when you consider their team stats.
#5 -- The bad news portion, as the Hawks and and Warriors are significantly over performing when compared to their projected win total. Timberwolves are included as well, but that's simply because they are currently on pace for an insane amount of wins.
NOTES
#1 -- Of all the teams at the bottom of the pack, the Pistons look to be in the best position to improve their record over the next few sims. I'm not sure if they will be able to be a competitor, but at the bare minimum they should improve.
#2 -- 76ers and Heat are pure trash. The model has not seen teams with team stats like these, hence the negative wins. May be early season noise, but things are looking good to secure the best spots in the lotto.
#3 -- As is apparent when looking at their team page, the Clippers are clearly under performing. They will get better and better record-wise as the season progresses.
#4 -- I have the Spurs and Cavs together here, as they are the two "top" teams in the model that are underperforming when you consider their team stats.
#5 -- The bad news portion, as the Hawks and and Warriors are significantly over performing when compared to their projected win total. Timberwolves are included as well, but that's simply because they are currently on pace for an insane amount of wins.
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