G9.
Pistons GM
- Messages
- 6,173
It's that time of the year - re-signing time. Some GM's are blessed with offers much lower than expected, others are left scrunching numbers and trying to find any sort of analytical/statistical reason to accept an offer that exceeded their expectations. Yet, more often than not all that number scrunching and fear of losing a player in Free Agency results in players being accepted to deals they probably shouldn't. We've seen it in the first 6 seasons of BSL, and we'll see a few more before long. Players such as Collin Sexton, James Harden, Lauri Markkanen and the like are still laughing their way to the bank while other players are demanding similar deals. There comes a point where - if everyone of Collin Sexton's caliber starts getting Collin Sexton money - it gets a little out of hand. The market baseline is set by re-signings and then we adjust for it in Free Agency. Let's take a look at a few contracts that might raise that baseline to an unsustainable number.
C/PF Xavier Tillman
23 Years Old
6'10", 280lbs
B C D- B+ B-
Career Averages: 28.9MPG | 12.8PPG | 8.5RPG | 1.4BPG | 0.9SPG | .440FG% | .700FT%
Offered Re-Signing: 5 Years, 21,700,000 - 28,700,000
Re-Signing Status: Accepted
Now, don't get me wrong. I love X. I love all my draftees, but X was special. I've had X in multiple sim leagues before and I've just associated him w/ success and winning. He hasn't done much of that in this league thus far, spending his first year with the Dallas Mavericks in the Developmental League, his second year in Dallas as an 8th seed, and his third year in Philadelphia as an 8th seed yet again. He's got some halfway decent ratings, he's not horribly inefficent, and he doesn't turn the ball over much. Some GM's among the league have already labeled X as a career 3rd or 4th string big, which of course, would be ideal. Honestly though, I think X is perfectly capable of being the second best big on a championship roster, so long as his partner up front is capable of holding his own on the boards. X brings to the table a solid post defensive skill set and an ability to both block and steal the basketball. He isn't a hole on offense - he takes limited attempts and does so with success. Is he the guy you'd want as your second best big? Perhaps no - but let us not pretend X isn't holding his own. As for potential, he's about bone dry. X entered the league with one of the worst potentials on draft night - but one of the best baselines. That baseline helped him get to where he is now and it is likely that he will stay there. I don't foresee a version of X in this iteration of BSL that exceeds B C D- A- B. With coaching and just a little more time he might reach those ratings - but for now... he's a B- rebounder who's out of potential. I don't think we should be paying guys like X 25M AAV. Especially after Goga got a similar deal last year and I'm sure we'll see multiple deals in this price range moving forward. If this X deal is accepted and he maintains a steady output of 12/10 with slightly above average defense... whats to stop everyone from paying 25M AAV for such production? If I'm Philadelphia I take a look at this offer and I say it...
thank u, next.
Lest not forget X was a 2nd round draftee.
Philly can easily replace him.
C/PF James Wiseman
21 Years Old
7'1", 230lbs
A- B- D+ B- A-
Career Averages: 29.6MPG | 13.5PPG | 9.2RPG | 1.5BPG | 0.6SPG | .444FG% | .657FT%
Offered Re-Signing: 5 Years, 25,500,000 - 33,600,000
Re-Signing Status: Accepted
Now this is a man who's worthy of that price range of 25 - 28M AAV, not far off from Xavier Tillman. This is not a case of thank u, next. This is a case of thank u, stay. Wiseman isn't the best big man in Phoenix, but that doesn't matter. He's still leaps and bounds above some of the other starting big men on playoff caliber teams, and the system Air is setting up in Phoenix is perfect for him. Bringing back Wiseman on a max contract next to DeAndre Ayton's max contract may not be the best idea long term (say, 5 seasons from now) if Air decides to stay homegrown forever - but for now... it's perfect. He can pay Wiseman and Ayton substanial money to dominate the front court while his younger players in Harmon and Clarke are still making relatively little money. I'm not entirely sure Wiseman is worth this contract right now - but at the very least he will be. He's already a top tier rebounder and scorer, if he just takes some small steps forward on the defensive end this contract will be worth every penny.
SF Samuell Willamson
21 Years Old
6'7" 180lbs
B B+ C C C+
Career Averages: 25.7MPG | 11.4PPG | 5.0RPG | 2.0APG | .441FG% | .708FT%
Offered Re-Signing: 5 Years, 25,500,000 - 33,600,000
Re-Signing Status: Accepted
Now don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of Samuell Williamson and his potential as as top scoring wing in BSL - but is accepting this max contract jumping the gun? Williamson is coming of a career year - averaging nearly 20PPG, 6RPG, and 4APG on rather impressive splits for his first full season as a starter. He severely lacks defensive presence though. He blocked and stole the ball nearly 1x per game last year, which actually might not be a good sign for that defensive letter grade. On draft night Williamson was a C- defender, and he's made some improvement since, but if he's generating some form of turnover, even if its only two a game, his perimeter, drive, and post defense could very well be mad-sus. So you might call him a double-edged sword. But like, a big one. I think Williamson will be capable of scoring 25PPG on a Championship caliber roster, but what do you surround him with? If you're paying your small forward to be a scorer, and only a scorer, you're lacking the money necessary to pay for defensive specialists and shot creators around him. By the third year of this deal Samuell will be raking in 30 million dollars, almost 1/3 of Cleveland's soft-cap space. Cleveland might be the ideal place for him to do this - as literally everyone else on the roster will likely be on rookie deals for the duration of Williamson's stay in Cleveland, but I'm still not sold on accepting this contract. Wings are hard to find in this league, so I can't even say this is a case of thank u, next. This is more of a case of ... we don't need you, but we don't not need you. You have potential and we're riding on potential...so... thank u, I guess?
C/PF Bobby Portis
29 Years Old
6'11" 250lbs
B- B- C- B- A-
Career Averages: 18.8MPG | 4.9PPG | 5.7RPG | .440FG% | .718FT%
Offered Re-Signing: 4 years, 12,700,000 - 15,700,000
Re-Signing Status: Declined
thank u, next. This contract offer is a classic case of thank u, next. Bobby Portis has been a career back-up big in this iteration of BSL and I don't expect him to ever become starting caliber worthy. You simply cannot pay 13M AAV for what Portis provides. He's great on the glass but... that is it. Also worth noting - Bobby is recently coming off a fantastic training camp in which he went +3. You can expect him to regress a little in the next training camp and he will certainly not be worth this contract 4 years from now. Well, unless he goes +3 again. I don't see that happening at this stage in his career though. He's a fringe C+ C+ scorer with fringe C+ defense. Rather mediocre all around. While he was great for the Bucks during his time there I think that time is up. Milwaukee can easily replace Portis with an MLE, BAE, or even a rookie draftee big-man. They won't miss him too much.
thank u Bobby, next.
C/PF Vernon Carey
22 Years Old
7'1" 295lbs
B C+ D- A- B
Career Averages: 32.5MPG | 18.4PPG | 9.7RPG | .449FG% | .675FT%
Offered Re-Signing: 5 Years, 25,500,000 - 33,600,000
Re-Signing Status: Accepted
Another former Dallas Mavericks big-man draftee. Another man I'm still not entirely sold on. Carey's season 6 stats are diminished due to a few mistakes on depth charting by notail and the commissioners. Apparently he wasn't bolded in the depth chart, so most of the fault is on notail. So instead lets take a look at his career stats. Vernon has certainly been solid since coming into the league, averaging nearly a 20/10. On top of that, he sports an above average defense for BSL big men. So, is he worth a max contract? Because of his relative performance in comparison to other big men his age, I suppose he might be. The Jazz will be put in a bind shortly though, and the thing I'm not sold on is if they can put together a real winning squad with the majority of their money going to 1) aging Rudy Gobert who's offensive output is diminishing quickly - and who's defensive ability isn't at the level it once was 2) Vernon Carey - a big who can be the main scorer but is no Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid 3) Ja Morant - a turnover prone point guard who can facilitate for Gobert and Carey, but at some significant costs (poor defense, league leading turnovers). If I'm the Utah Jazz this isn't a case of thank u, next, as it's hard to immediately replace someone of Carey's ability. I think Utah should accept this deal and either wholly commit to building around Vern- shipping off Gobert and Morant, OR, trading Vern, Gobert, AND Morant and completely resetting. I think they could get away with building around Vern as the #1 guy for the next 5-7 seasons, but if someone offers a solid package for him - Utah should take it.
SF Sam Hauser
22 Years Old
6'8" 245lbs
C+ B+ C B C
Career Averages: 31.2MPG | 10.2PPG | 5.6RPG | .450FG% | .412 3PT%
Offered Re-Signing: 4 Years, 10,400,000 -12,900,000
Re-Signing Status: Accepted
Sam Hauser had been playing primarily 3&D for his first three seasons, and he was doing pretty good at it. This last season Sam Hauser was called upon by the Portland Trailblazers GM to be the #1 option at times. He did pretty good at that too, but that's it. Pretty good. Hauser averaged 15 points this season despite being listed as the first option for multiple sims. eMac tried to maximize Hauser's output and see what he is capable of - and well - he's not capable of being a number one option. Hauser's 15ppg led the Portland Trailblazers to a 35-47 record, good for 11th seed in the West. This re-signing offer is actually about what you'd expect for a 3&D player in BSL (or real life). I offered a similar contract to PF/SF De'Andre Hunter last season before he accepted a deal that exceeded 22M AAV. Now 22M AAV for 3&D = thank u, next. This contract offer? Well, I suppose... thank u, stay. This contract won't severely limit the Trailblazers moving forward and you know exactly what you're getting out of Sam Hauser.
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