Now that the first 14 picks have come and gone, I felt that it would be an appropriate time to compare the results of the 2008 lottery to where they fall on my rookie rankings.
I'll briefly provide a quick primer on how they work, but to be fully transparent, they are fairly subjective and require a lot of user manipulation. Contrary to my other posts, there isn't a lot of "data" to construct something robust. Rather, we have to work with what we're give: attribute rankings, age, and position.
My draft rankings significantly rely upon where the player's rank in the 6 key player attributes (Inside, Outside, Handles, Defense, Rebounding, Pot). Each position has specific weights applied to the six ratings as a mean to better focus on the key attributes for the position. For example, a point guard may have heavier weights on outside/handles/defense when compared to inside and rebounding. That's not to say those aren't important attributes; rather, it emphasizes the skills that best project whether or not a player will be able to excel in their specific position.
Once those rankings are finalized, additional weights are applied that account for the player's age. Putting it short, it's better to be 18/19 than to be in the 20s. The resulting value is normalized to a 0-100 scale. For example, if I player were to be ranked #1 in all six categories, they would have a score of 100.
A key thing to remember is that these rankings are not perfect by any means. They can be used as a helpful tool for identifying hidden talent in drafts and to help the GM sort out who some of the best prospects are. There are always going to be hidden elements, such as physical traits and real-life production, that don't show up in these rankings.
One final disclaimer: my rankings evaluate rookies amongst their peers in the draft class. It is not able to make direct comparison to other draft classes, which other rookie rankings may be able to. I believe MAPLESCOUTING likely can do this, as its evaluation computed differently. I'd encourage NC to post a similar rankings to compare our two models.
1.) Phoenix Suns - Stephen Curry
Ranking: #1 (Score: 90.3)
This pick was as clear as day. Steph has a killer outside shot, great handes, and amazing pot. It would be absolutely shocking if he didn't turn into an eventual all-NBA player. He's got all the tools to dominate as early as his rookie season.
2.) Indiana Pacers - Damian Lillard
Ranking: #2 (Score: 86.7)
Similar to Steph, Lillard looks like a can't miss prospect that likely would have been #1 in most other draft classes. He's clearly going to be a phenomenal three point shooter and should be able to put up a lot of points. Big question mark with Damian is tied to his defense -- he's known in real life to be a piss poor defender. Will it translate to the game? Is that C+ rating all fluff?
3.) Vancouver Grizzlies - Kemba Walker
Ranking: #4 (Score: 82.3)
First pick of the draft that doesn't align with the rookie rankings and I'll explain why that is later in the draft. However, Kemba looks like he has a bright future ahead of him. Another 18 year old with the potential to double boost.... but also the increased odds to have his potential drop. Panic loves his teens, so this was a no-brainer on his end. I personally agree with the Walker pick here, as his positional potential is hard to beat.
4.) Miami Heat - Jimmy Butler
Ranking: #5 (Score: 79.1)
Jimmy finds himself at #5 on the ranking, which seems like a fairly appropriate position for him. He as phenomenal base skills in all the right area, is a teen, and has a great potential. Gopher should be happy with this pick, as Jimmy could turn out to be a very reliable player for the foreseeable future.
5.) San Antonio Spurs - Derrick Rose
Ranking: #9 (Score: 75.9)
Funny enough, the first true "reach" from my rookie rankings belongs to.......... me. Rose is ranked as the #9 best prospect according to my rankings. If you quickly span through the index, you'll find that Rose is an extremely well-balanced PG that has a focus towards inside scoring moreso than outside. That defintely hurts him in the rankings, as the prototypical PG will typically have a better outside ratings. However, I took a shot on Rose due to his well-balanced build, high potential, and the high odds of him have ridiculous physical traits, as he does in real life. We'll see if it pays off!
6.) Boston Celtics (from Milwaukee Bucks) - DeMar DeRozan
Ranking: #21 (Score: 68.68)
When looking at his draft profile, DeMar looks like he may be a pretty good prospect due to his build. But, when you begin to dig into his rankings, he ends up falling quite shockingly low. My assumption is that his #81 ranked outside scoring REALLY tanked his value, as well has his #39 ranked defense. I would be concerned about his jump shot ratings and inflated inside due to high jumping. All things considered, DeMar has the age and potential to turn thigs around.... it just may take awhile.
7.) Toronto Raptors - Serge Ibaka
Ranking: #7 (Score: 78.7)
Serge may have been the first big man selected, but he ended up being the second best in my rankings. Serge has all the tools to excel in the league and contribute as a starter for years to come. As a 19 year old, he has a chance to boost and really take off. Raptors have got to be hoping his blocks are starting off at a high base coming into his rookie year.
8.) Detroit Pistons - Rajon Rondo
Ranking: #23 (Score: 66.4)
Rondo is another player that may have been selected a bit too early in the draft. You can make the argument for DeMar to go as early as he did, as he is 19 and has the chance for a potential boost. However, Rondo has "okay" potential at the age of 22 and a very weak base for scoring the ball. Rondo's best path forward is serving as a cost-effective distributor on a team with exceptional scorers.
9.) Portland Trail Blazers - J.R. Smith
Ranking: #6 (Score: 78.3)
JR LOOKS AWESOME. In my opinion, this was a great selection by Foreman even with Smith's age. He's walking into the league as a B/B- scorer and should be able to get buckets from day one. I get he's old, but this is a great starting point for a future scoring star.
10.) Los Angeles Lakers - Eric Gordon
Ranking: #15 (Score: 73)
There may be more "game ready" players out there, but Gordon looks like a fairly good pick for the Lakers at 10. The base may not be amazing, but he's got a top 10 potential and the chance to boost. RunSoHard has got to be hoping that his scoring chops and perimeter defense develop. If Nate were trying to win next season, I think there may have been better options on the board.
11.) Phoenix Suns (from Seattle SuperSonics) - Roy Hibbert
Ranking: #3 (Score: 85.9)
I absolutely love this pick by the Suns. Hibbert was the #1 rated big man in the draft and ended up at #3 overall. That ranking may be a bit inflated due to the lack of big man competition in the draft, but Hibbert still looks like he can come in and be a damn good center early on. Frank came away with two exceptional picks in this draft and dramatically sped up his rebuild. Nice work.
12.) Seattle SuperSonics (from Charlotte Hornets) - Ty Lawson
Ranking: #13 (Score: 75.2)
I really like the Ty Lawson pick here by Daulten. Lawson is extremely well balanced and is fairly fringy in both of his scoring attributes. For a late lotto, this is a home run pick. He may lack in potential, but I'd like to think that Lawson will continue to slowly develop into a starting quality PG as the years go by.
13.) Detroit Pistons (from Philadelphia 76ers) - Shaun Livingston
Ranking: #31 (Score: 62.2)
Another reach unfortunately for the Pistons, as Livingston doesn't quite look like he has that strong of a rookie profile to warrant a lottery pick. However, he does have farily good potential and may be able to develop some useful skills down the road. However, who is the PG in Detroit moving forward? Two decent assets used on similar PGs in the same draft. Hopefully they can get an early pick next season to get a surefire star.
14.) Sacramento Kings - Andray Blatche
Ranking: #12 (Score: 78.3)
Good pick by Brad here, as he was able to pick up a quality big man towards the tail end of the lotto. Blatche has a great inside/defense/rebounding ratings for a rookie PF and should be able to develop into a quality starter some day. At 22 his upside may be limited, but hopefully Blatche can put good use to the potential he has and continue to grow.
I'll briefly provide a quick primer on how they work, but to be fully transparent, they are fairly subjective and require a lot of user manipulation. Contrary to my other posts, there isn't a lot of "data" to construct something robust. Rather, we have to work with what we're give: attribute rankings, age, and position.
My draft rankings significantly rely upon where the player's rank in the 6 key player attributes (Inside, Outside, Handles, Defense, Rebounding, Pot). Each position has specific weights applied to the six ratings as a mean to better focus on the key attributes for the position. For example, a point guard may have heavier weights on outside/handles/defense when compared to inside and rebounding. That's not to say those aren't important attributes; rather, it emphasizes the skills that best project whether or not a player will be able to excel in their specific position.
Once those rankings are finalized, additional weights are applied that account for the player's age. Putting it short, it's better to be 18/19 than to be in the 20s. The resulting value is normalized to a 0-100 scale. For example, if I player were to be ranked #1 in all six categories, they would have a score of 100.
A key thing to remember is that these rankings are not perfect by any means. They can be used as a helpful tool for identifying hidden talent in drafts and to help the GM sort out who some of the best prospects are. There are always going to be hidden elements, such as physical traits and real-life production, that don't show up in these rankings.
One final disclaimer: my rankings evaluate rookies amongst their peers in the draft class. It is not able to make direct comparison to other draft classes, which other rookie rankings may be able to. I believe MAPLESCOUTING likely can do this, as its evaluation computed differently. I'd encourage NC to post a similar rankings to compare our two models.
1.) Phoenix Suns - Stephen Curry
Ranking: #1 (Score: 90.3)
This pick was as clear as day. Steph has a killer outside shot, great handes, and amazing pot. It would be absolutely shocking if he didn't turn into an eventual all-NBA player. He's got all the tools to dominate as early as his rookie season.
2.) Indiana Pacers - Damian Lillard
Ranking: #2 (Score: 86.7)
Similar to Steph, Lillard looks like a can't miss prospect that likely would have been #1 in most other draft classes. He's clearly going to be a phenomenal three point shooter and should be able to put up a lot of points. Big question mark with Damian is tied to his defense -- he's known in real life to be a piss poor defender. Will it translate to the game? Is that C+ rating all fluff?
3.) Vancouver Grizzlies - Kemba Walker
Ranking: #4 (Score: 82.3)
First pick of the draft that doesn't align with the rookie rankings and I'll explain why that is later in the draft. However, Kemba looks like he has a bright future ahead of him. Another 18 year old with the potential to double boost.... but also the increased odds to have his potential drop. Panic loves his teens, so this was a no-brainer on his end. I personally agree with the Walker pick here, as his positional potential is hard to beat.
4.) Miami Heat - Jimmy Butler
Ranking: #5 (Score: 79.1)
Jimmy finds himself at #5 on the ranking, which seems like a fairly appropriate position for him. He as phenomenal base skills in all the right area, is a teen, and has a great potential. Gopher should be happy with this pick, as Jimmy could turn out to be a very reliable player for the foreseeable future.
5.) San Antonio Spurs - Derrick Rose
Ranking: #9 (Score: 75.9)
Funny enough, the first true "reach" from my rookie rankings belongs to.......... me. Rose is ranked as the #9 best prospect according to my rankings. If you quickly span through the index, you'll find that Rose is an extremely well-balanced PG that has a focus towards inside scoring moreso than outside. That defintely hurts him in the rankings, as the prototypical PG will typically have a better outside ratings. However, I took a shot on Rose due to his well-balanced build, high potential, and the high odds of him have ridiculous physical traits, as he does in real life. We'll see if it pays off!
6.) Boston Celtics (from Milwaukee Bucks) - DeMar DeRozan
Ranking: #21 (Score: 68.68)
When looking at his draft profile, DeMar looks like he may be a pretty good prospect due to his build. But, when you begin to dig into his rankings, he ends up falling quite shockingly low. My assumption is that his #81 ranked outside scoring REALLY tanked his value, as well has his #39 ranked defense. I would be concerned about his jump shot ratings and inflated inside due to high jumping. All things considered, DeMar has the age and potential to turn thigs around.... it just may take awhile.
7.) Toronto Raptors - Serge Ibaka
Ranking: #7 (Score: 78.7)
Serge may have been the first big man selected, but he ended up being the second best in my rankings. Serge has all the tools to excel in the league and contribute as a starter for years to come. As a 19 year old, he has a chance to boost and really take off. Raptors have got to be hoping his blocks are starting off at a high base coming into his rookie year.
8.) Detroit Pistons - Rajon Rondo
Ranking: #23 (Score: 66.4)
Rondo is another player that may have been selected a bit too early in the draft. You can make the argument for DeMar to go as early as he did, as he is 19 and has the chance for a potential boost. However, Rondo has "okay" potential at the age of 22 and a very weak base for scoring the ball. Rondo's best path forward is serving as a cost-effective distributor on a team with exceptional scorers.
9.) Portland Trail Blazers - J.R. Smith
Ranking: #6 (Score: 78.3)
JR LOOKS AWESOME. In my opinion, this was a great selection by Foreman even with Smith's age. He's walking into the league as a B/B- scorer and should be able to get buckets from day one. I get he's old, but this is a great starting point for a future scoring star.
10.) Los Angeles Lakers - Eric Gordon
Ranking: #15 (Score: 73)
There may be more "game ready" players out there, but Gordon looks like a fairly good pick for the Lakers at 10. The base may not be amazing, but he's got a top 10 potential and the chance to boost. RunSoHard has got to be hoping that his scoring chops and perimeter defense develop. If Nate were trying to win next season, I think there may have been better options on the board.
11.) Phoenix Suns (from Seattle SuperSonics) - Roy Hibbert
Ranking: #3 (Score: 85.9)
I absolutely love this pick by the Suns. Hibbert was the #1 rated big man in the draft and ended up at #3 overall. That ranking may be a bit inflated due to the lack of big man competition in the draft, but Hibbert still looks like he can come in and be a damn good center early on. Frank came away with two exceptional picks in this draft and dramatically sped up his rebuild. Nice work.
12.) Seattle SuperSonics (from Charlotte Hornets) - Ty Lawson
Ranking: #13 (Score: 75.2)
I really like the Ty Lawson pick here by Daulten. Lawson is extremely well balanced and is fairly fringy in both of his scoring attributes. For a late lotto, this is a home run pick. He may lack in potential, but I'd like to think that Lawson will continue to slowly develop into a starting quality PG as the years go by.
13.) Detroit Pistons (from Philadelphia 76ers) - Shaun Livingston
Ranking: #31 (Score: 62.2)
Another reach unfortunately for the Pistons, as Livingston doesn't quite look like he has that strong of a rookie profile to warrant a lottery pick. However, he does have farily good potential and may be able to develop some useful skills down the road. However, who is the PG in Detroit moving forward? Two decent assets used on similar PGs in the same draft. Hopefully they can get an early pick next season to get a surefire star.
14.) Sacramento Kings - Andray Blatche
Ranking: #12 (Score: 78.3)
Good pick by Brad here, as he was able to pick up a quality big man towards the tail end of the lotto. Blatche has a great inside/defense/rebounding ratings for a rookie PF and should be able to develop into a quality starter some day. At 22 his upside may be limited, but hopefully Blatche can put good use to the potential he has and continue to grow.
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