mngopher35
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Alright, challenge accepted but I am also going to look at an overall aspect too just for this iteration. For starters I think we should point out I started this iteration landing the 1 pick in that crazy good draft and Kobe/PP developed nicely for me as specs. No matter what is said going forward it is still possible I am not completely screwed by FBB.
1997-98 - My first year competing and we lost to the bulls in ECF game 7. Normally would be nothing as the run was solid given my team but this was where it all began really, I would fall in game 7's repeatedly moving forward often with injuries getting in the way. .9.
99 - Lost to bucks in 6, similar differentials nothing too crazy here. 10.9.
00 - Lost to Bullets in 6 and they went on to win the title. Terry didn't terrorize me in the same way as Steph so not too mad about this one. We also had pretty similar differentials here, meaning within 1.9 points of each other. 10.9
01 - Lost to Magic, had an 8 point diff but they were the superior team. 8.6
02 - Lost to Bucks in 7 2nd round but they were also superior team, they went on to win the title. 8.4
03 - Lost in 7 to Bucks 1st round, similar differentials again with mine .1 better. 10.7
04 - Lost to Nets in 6 in ECF who went on to win. 13.9 differential, was 2 higher than Nets so my arbitrary ruling mark this as not similar (hint, agenda).
05 - Lost to Magic in 6 2nd round and they went on to win. 11.5
06 - #1 seed but PP got injured, lost to bulls 2nd round in 5. 11.3
07 - Won the title. 7.9 (not nearly my best team)
Tanked for a bit
11 - Lose to Bullets in 5 in ECF, they had 8.6 differential which again technically.... 10.6
12 - Lost to Bullets in 4 in ECF, they had 11 differential which again is outside of 2 points. 13.5
13 - Lost to Bullets in 5 in ECF who won the title, he had 14.2 diff. 11.4
14 - Jefferson injured for chunk of playoffs including part of 2nd round, lost to Bullets in 7 in 2nd round and they went on to win. 9.
15 - Lost to Bullets in 7 in ECF, they went on to win the title. 14.8
16 . #1 seed but Roy got injured, lost to 76ers in 5 in 2nd round. 17.2
17. #1 seed but Roy (and Hill) got injured, lost in 7 2nd round to Celtics who won. 11
This is the overall look of what playoffs have looked like for the Heat. I bolded every season my differential was over 10 points (17.2, 14.8, 13.9, 13.5, 11.5, 11.4, 11.3, 11 and 10.9 x 2), every time I lost in a game 7 (6 times), lost a star player to injury with a legit shot or even top team (4 times), made it to the ECF and/or lost to the champions. I have two seasons un bolded and one of them I won the title. To relate this to the Ebbs aspect from Foreman, we can see 6 losses to the Bullets above without really having success (two years I lost to him with higher differential, one with injury to Al Jeff). A lot of these came in years where I had a top level team with high differential, we just lost very close series. Which is generally the theme of this iteration for us, injuries when elite/seemingly at the top and losing close series when we are right there but not necessarily top seed or anything. All of these elite team and high end differentials have lead to 1 finals appearance from the East.
The 10 seasons of 10.9 differentials or above are all higher than the 10.8 average for champions based on Franks previous data. In fact outside of my 1st season competing my differential average has been 11.35 which is above the average differential of all champions through 2009 when Franks article found the average champion to have a 10.8 differential.
1997-98 - My first year competing and we lost to the bulls in ECF game 7. Normally would be nothing as the run was solid given my team but this was where it all began really, I would fall in game 7's repeatedly moving forward often with injuries getting in the way. .9.
99 - Lost to bucks in 6, similar differentials nothing too crazy here. 10.9.
00 - Lost to Bullets in 6 and they went on to win the title. Terry didn't terrorize me in the same way as Steph so not too mad about this one. We also had pretty similar differentials here, meaning within 1.9 points of each other. 10.9
01 - Lost to Magic, had an 8 point diff but they were the superior team. 8.6
02 - Lost to Bucks in 7 2nd round but they were also superior team, they went on to win the title. 8.4
03 - Lost in 7 to Bucks 1st round, similar differentials again with mine .1 better. 10.7
04 - Lost to Nets in 6 in ECF who went on to win. 13.9 differential, was 2 higher than Nets so my arbitrary ruling mark this as not similar (hint, agenda).
05 - Lost to Magic in 6 2nd round and they went on to win. 11.5
06 - #1 seed but PP got injured, lost to bulls 2nd round in 5. 11.3
07 - Won the title. 7.9 (not nearly my best team)
Tanked for a bit
11 - Lose to Bullets in 5 in ECF, they had 8.6 differential which again technically.... 10.6
12 - Lost to Bullets in 4 in ECF, they had 11 differential which again is outside of 2 points. 13.5
13 - Lost to Bullets in 5 in ECF who won the title, he had 14.2 diff. 11.4
14 - Jefferson injured for chunk of playoffs including part of 2nd round, lost to Bullets in 7 in 2nd round and they went on to win. 9.
15 - Lost to Bullets in 7 in ECF, they went on to win the title. 14.8
16 . #1 seed but Roy got injured, lost to 76ers in 5 in 2nd round. 17.2
17. #1 seed but Roy (and Hill) got injured, lost in 7 2nd round to Celtics who won. 11
This is the overall look of what playoffs have looked like for the Heat. I bolded every season my differential was over 10 points (17.2, 14.8, 13.9, 13.5, 11.5, 11.4, 11.3, 11 and 10.9 x 2), every time I lost in a game 7 (6 times), lost a star player to injury with a legit shot or even top team (4 times), made it to the ECF and/or lost to the champions. I have two seasons un bolded and one of them I won the title. To relate this to the Ebbs aspect from Foreman, we can see 6 losses to the Bullets above without really having success (two years I lost to him with higher differential, one with injury to Al Jeff). A lot of these came in years where I had a top level team with high differential, we just lost very close series. Which is generally the theme of this iteration for us, injuries when elite/seemingly at the top and losing close series when we are right there but not necessarily top seed or anything. All of these elite team and high end differentials have lead to 1 finals appearance from the East.
The 10 seasons of 10.9 differentials or above are all higher than the 10.8 average for champions based on Franks previous data. In fact outside of my 1st season competing my differential average has been 11.35 which is above the average differential of all champions through 2009 when Franks article found the average champion to have a 10.8 differential.
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