LukaSZN
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I got really into the overrated/underrated topic Brooks brought up and I'm doing fuck all so I played around with some ideas today and here's what I came up with.
I took 40 guards of interest from the file, this was mostly subjective but obviously took the guys in larger roles or high in certain attributes. I only took guards who were currently slotted at point guard or who could be cheesed at point guard. Depending on the interest level and my motivation, I'd do a version of this for wings and bigs as well.
The goal: Essentially, I wanted to present an overall value indicator. Similar to what the NFL has for draft picks. For example, Baron Davis is a really good fucking player but when you consider his overall value (age and potential) what's he worth relative to a much younger player who is obviously more raw but has so many more years ahead of them? I tried to create a tangible number for both offence and defence, I then contrasted it to the league perception from our voting exercise yesterday. (Voting was a little over 12,000 votes when I was inputting.)
*Notable flaw in my formula is that there's nothing to account for years left on a contract or contract $ vs. the cap. This already took me too many hours to add it in lol.
OPOV (Offensive Points Over Value)
Sample Average: 53.292
We all know ratings are mostly fluff, so I played with a formula that I liked to better represent where guys are. Not going to give all the specifics but I awarded handles and quickness a much higher weight and both of jumping, passing, were weighted down. Other offensive ratings were tweaked only slightly. At the end I scaled results for potential. Players were bumped higher, depending on how high their pot is currently sitting. (Pre-coaching, G League etc.) Players in what I considered a neutral pot zone were not given a boost or deduction. Players 50 or below got a deduction dependent on how far it dipped.
Top five: Rose, Walker, Curry, Paul, and J.R. SMITH. (Rose being essentially +7 against the curve is pretty incredible.)
The entire guard class from that last draft is fucking ridiculous.
DPOV (Defensive Points Over Value)
Sample Average: 41.423
For the defensive formula, I made sure both perimeter defence and steals values were on steroids, added a slight bump for versatility to switch positions, and punished players if their athletics sucked with a slight down scale. I once again had a sliding scale for potential to better encapsulate overall value.
Top five: Tony Allen, Dwyane Wade, Baron Davis, Darren Collison, and J.R. Henny SMITH. (Allen is +10 defensively relative to the field lmao.)
If you want a different look at it, I charted it here.
X - axis shows the OPOA.
Y - axis shows the DPOA.
Bubble size shows the league perception from the voting yesterday.
Some conclusions on the overrated/underrated conversation.
1) I thought point Allen was stupid last year but Air was on to something, he can play either position. He's the most impactful defender able to play point guard in the league by a mile.
2) Air got slapped giving Redick away for free.
Most underrated guard in the league. John Wall is probably underrated by a fair bit. Yes the handles are an issue but everyone knows he boosted and his base is pretty crazy outside of that. He's seen as the 23rd most valuable player of the of the 40 according to voting but he's a top eight player value wise according to the data here. Runner-Up, Darren Collison, who is seen as the 26th most valuable guard here but finished 10th in OPOA (again, despite handles being heavily weighted) and 4th in DPOA.
Most overrated guard in the league. Devin Harris. Seen as the 8th most valuable of the 40 guards, his OPOA is just barely above average. Runner-Up, James Harden, who hold a below average value offensively and defensively despite getting weighted bumps for age and potential.
I took 40 guards of interest from the file, this was mostly subjective but obviously took the guys in larger roles or high in certain attributes. I only took guards who were currently slotted at point guard or who could be cheesed at point guard. Depending on the interest level and my motivation, I'd do a version of this for wings and bigs as well.
The goal: Essentially, I wanted to present an overall value indicator. Similar to what the NFL has for draft picks. For example, Baron Davis is a really good fucking player but when you consider his overall value (age and potential) what's he worth relative to a much younger player who is obviously more raw but has so many more years ahead of them? I tried to create a tangible number for both offence and defence, I then contrasted it to the league perception from our voting exercise yesterday. (Voting was a little over 12,000 votes when I was inputting.)
*Notable flaw in my formula is that there's nothing to account for years left on a contract or contract $ vs. the cap. This already took me too many hours to add it in lol.
OPOV (Offensive Points Over Value)
Sample Average: 53.292
We all know ratings are mostly fluff, so I played with a formula that I liked to better represent where guys are. Not going to give all the specifics but I awarded handles and quickness a much higher weight and both of jumping, passing, were weighted down. Other offensive ratings were tweaked only slightly. At the end I scaled results for potential. Players were bumped higher, depending on how high their pot is currently sitting. (Pre-coaching, G League etc.) Players in what I considered a neutral pot zone were not given a boost or deduction. Players 50 or below got a deduction dependent on how far it dipped.
Top five: Rose, Walker, Curry, Paul, and J.R. SMITH. (Rose being essentially +7 against the curve is pretty incredible.)
The entire guard class from that last draft is fucking ridiculous.
DPOV (Defensive Points Over Value)
Sample Average: 41.423
For the defensive formula, I made sure both perimeter defence and steals values were on steroids, added a slight bump for versatility to switch positions, and punished players if their athletics sucked with a slight down scale. I once again had a sliding scale for potential to better encapsulate overall value.
Top five: Tony Allen, Dwyane Wade, Baron Davis, Darren Collison, and J.R. Henny SMITH. (Allen is +10 defensively relative to the field lmao.)
If you want a different look at it, I charted it here.
X - axis shows the OPOA.
Y - axis shows the DPOA.
Bubble size shows the league perception from the voting yesterday.
Some conclusions on the overrated/underrated conversation.
1) I thought point Allen was stupid last year but Air was on to something, he can play either position. He's the most impactful defender able to play point guard in the league by a mile.
2) Air got slapped giving Redick away for free.
Most underrated guard in the league. John Wall is probably underrated by a fair bit. Yes the handles are an issue but everyone knows he boosted and his base is pretty crazy outside of that. He's seen as the 23rd most valuable player of the of the 40 according to voting but he's a top eight player value wise according to the data here. Runner-Up, Darren Collison, who is seen as the 26th most valuable guard here but finished 10th in OPOA (again, despite handles being heavily weighted) and 4th in DPOA.
Most overrated guard in the league. Devin Harris. Seen as the 8th most valuable of the 40 guards, his OPOA is just barely above average. Runner-Up, James Harden, who hold a below average value offensively and defensively despite getting weighted bumps for age and potential.