LukaSZN
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Over the last two leagues there's been an insane fascination with potential over production, much to the detriment of many GMs. While I can't possibly sort that all out, I did sort of want to look at one element of the equation -- drafting teenagers.
I grabbed a random year from last league (2029) and adjusted some of the ages to ensure there were lots of teens available. I then summed training camps 10 times and charted the results which you can see below.
Red = Pot death, decrease of 11+
Teal = Pot stays the same
Green = Pot boost
Some things to chew on below:
1) Some basic things to know in regards to the draft. FBB ranks players with 61-81 potential as "B" potential prospects. Which is obviously a large range but also can tell you some things. In the upcoming draft for instance, C.J. McCollum is the highest rated B so we know instantly he's hanging somewhere just below 82. I'd guess most drafts Donkey has the top B as an 81-78. At the bottom of the B prospects we have some cat named Indrek Kajupank lmao. We can safely assume he's a 61 or close to based on the margins. I'm going long here but this is important because teenagers with pot lower than 71 can not boost. I genuinely don't know if this is well known or not but I didn't know that before this draft. Which makes the late lotto and mid-first part of the draft very interesting. Harrison Barnes and Tristan Thompson will likely go high as they are teenagers but they are the 29th ranked and 30th ranked B pot prospects if they fall 70 or below in potential the primary reason most people would draft them is negligible. (If Donk wanted to fuck with you, he could make McCollum a 70 pot and have all the B potential players fall between 70 and 61 -- essentially killing all boost chances outside of the A zone.)
2) The average decrease in pot for a draft prospect is between 6 and 9, the lowest any non-teen player dropped is 10. Which should almost in sincerity count as a pot death. If you have a prospect go from 93 to 83 at 20 or older, you got slapped as hard as the game slaps you.
3) Teenagers are VERY likely to have some sort of shenanigans occur. During my tests, 13 teens had the 71 required pot to be in the realm of a major pot change. In total, that's 130 TCs. In 104 of the tests, the teenager had their pot die, remain the same, or boost. That's an 80% chance your teen is going to alter significantly in some way. In 39 out of 130 (30%) of the tests, the teen saw their pot die. The worst pot death I believe to be possible based on the all tests is a -20 and from a logic sense, double what a normal player can do seems reasonable. Again, I'm now hypothesizing but a 1-in-3 chance that your teen busts hard seems logical from a creator standpoint. If you are good at math, you have already figured it out. . . In 65 of 130 tests (50%), the teenager boosted or saw their pot stay the same. On a whole my test probably didn't have a large enough sample but 34 of the 65 outright boosted and 31 of the 65 stayed the same. Statistically, your teenager is more likely to die than boost but more likely to boost/stay the same than die.
Draft a teen and the rough outcomes are:
Pot death: 30%
Boost/same pot: 50%
Normalish TC: 20%
The most important thing to remember here is the margins, 71+ or no chance to enter the spin zone.
4) The teen years aren't the same. This I'm not sure on but 18-year-olds seemed to outright boost a lot less than the 17 and 19 year old prospects. Far more likely to stay the same than boost. I don't know if that's conclusive or just too small of a sample but worth keeping in the back of your mind. With 17-year-olds it's the opposite, they seem far more likely to boost or tank than stay the same. Again -- small sample but I'm chewing on it.
Will this make anyone a better drafter? Is there anything you didn't know? I dunno. Hope it was worth the read.
I grabbed a random year from last league (2029) and adjusted some of the ages to ensure there were lots of teens available. I then summed training camps 10 times and charted the results which you can see below.
Red = Pot death, decrease of 11+
Teal = Pot stays the same
Green = Pot boost
Some things to chew on below:
1) Some basic things to know in regards to the draft. FBB ranks players with 61-81 potential as "B" potential prospects. Which is obviously a large range but also can tell you some things. In the upcoming draft for instance, C.J. McCollum is the highest rated B so we know instantly he's hanging somewhere just below 82. I'd guess most drafts Donkey has the top B as an 81-78. At the bottom of the B prospects we have some cat named Indrek Kajupank lmao. We can safely assume he's a 61 or close to based on the margins. I'm going long here but this is important because teenagers with pot lower than 71 can not boost. I genuinely don't know if this is well known or not but I didn't know that before this draft. Which makes the late lotto and mid-first part of the draft very interesting. Harrison Barnes and Tristan Thompson will likely go high as they are teenagers but they are the 29th ranked and 30th ranked B pot prospects if they fall 70 or below in potential the primary reason most people would draft them is negligible. (If Donk wanted to fuck with you, he could make McCollum a 70 pot and have all the B potential players fall between 70 and 61 -- essentially killing all boost chances outside of the A zone.)
2) The average decrease in pot for a draft prospect is between 6 and 9, the lowest any non-teen player dropped is 10. Which should almost in sincerity count as a pot death. If you have a prospect go from 93 to 83 at 20 or older, you got slapped as hard as the game slaps you.
3) Teenagers are VERY likely to have some sort of shenanigans occur. During my tests, 13 teens had the 71 required pot to be in the realm of a major pot change. In total, that's 130 TCs. In 104 of the tests, the teenager had their pot die, remain the same, or boost. That's an 80% chance your teen is going to alter significantly in some way. In 39 out of 130 (30%) of the tests, the teen saw their pot die. The worst pot death I believe to be possible based on the all tests is a -20 and from a logic sense, double what a normal player can do seems reasonable. Again, I'm now hypothesizing but a 1-in-3 chance that your teen busts hard seems logical from a creator standpoint. If you are good at math, you have already figured it out. . . In 65 of 130 tests (50%), the teenager boosted or saw their pot stay the same. On a whole my test probably didn't have a large enough sample but 34 of the 65 outright boosted and 31 of the 65 stayed the same. Statistically, your teenager is more likely to die than boost but more likely to boost/stay the same than die.
Draft a teen and the rough outcomes are:
Pot death: 30%
Boost/same pot: 50%
Normalish TC: 20%
The most important thing to remember here is the margins, 71+ or no chance to enter the spin zone.
4) The teen years aren't the same. This I'm not sure on but 18-year-olds seemed to outright boost a lot less than the 17 and 19 year old prospects. Far more likely to stay the same than boost. I don't know if that's conclusive or just too small of a sample but worth keeping in the back of your mind. With 17-year-olds it's the opposite, they seem far more likely to boost or tank than stay the same. Again -- small sample but I'm chewing on it.
Will this make anyone a better drafter? Is there anything you didn't know? I dunno. Hope it was worth the read.
