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Approximately five months ago I wrote an article breaking down the BSL draft lottery and how it had played out over the first 12 seasons of the league. Now, we have topped 20 lotteries and therefore have 20 seasons wroth of data to look into. I took the time to go through each of the past 20 draft lotteries that we have seen during this iteration and attempted to figure out what is the ideal landing spot in pre-lottery odds and which teams have reaped the benefits of this potentially flawed system.
We'll begin with the basics. Per the BSL website, the odds per pick are as follows.
Now, for the actual results
The first overall pick in any draft is arguably one of the most coveted pieces possible in BSL. In doing so, teams fight for the best possible pre-draft position. From there, a custom lottery system is used to determine the draft order, in which you can find above. Now, the top projected spot in a place most people want to find themselves. However, data suggests otherwise. In 20 lotteries, the first overall projection has landed the top pick just one time (2030.) In 20 seasons, it has fallen to the second pick just once as well (2042.) It then fell to third pick just twice (2038 & 2041.) The top odds has fallen to the fourth pick four times and the fifth spot (the lowest it can go,) 11 times. Through 20 lotteries, the top projected spot has fallen a combined 65 places with an average fall rate of -3.25. So therefore, the top projected spot has an average pick placement of 4.25
It gets a bit better, but not much, for the second overall projection. In 20 lotteries, the second overall projection has landed the top spot three times. That actually took place in three consecutive seasons (2032-2034.) From there, it held idle at the second overall pick just twice, in the second and third season (2025 & 2026.) It fell to the third pick just twice as well (2027 & 2042.) From there, it fell to the fourth pick twice (2040 & 2043,) the fifth pick five times and the sixth pick (the lowest it can go,) six times. This puts an overall fall of -42 placements and an average fall rate of -2.1. The second overall projection has a average pick of 4.1, bettering the first overall projection.
Of the top three picks, the third overall projection is so far the best spot to be. It had resulted in the first overall selection 4 times (2026, 2027, 2035 & 2037.) This makes it the pre-draft lottery placement with the most first overall selections. From there, it had jumped to the second overall selection four times (2024, 2028, 2029 and 2041.) The pick remained idle three times (2030, 2038 & 2039.) It fell to the fourth overall selection just once (2036.) It fell to the fifth overall pick twice (2032 & 2042) and the sixth pick five times. The furthest the pick can fall is the seventh overall selection and it did that just once (2031.) Combined, the third overall projection has fallen a combined 12 times and has an average fall rate of -0.6 Much better than the selections we're highlighted to this point. The third overall projection has an average selection of 3.6, again, the best to this point and the best overall. From a pre-lottery standpoint, the third projection is where you want to be.
Things get worse for the fourth overall projection as it has fallen a combined 26 placements in 20 lotteries and has an average fall rate of -1.3. It also has resulted in the first overall selection just one time (2034.) This projection has moved to the second overall selection just once as well (2043.) It moved up one spot to the third overall selection just two times (2025 & 2034) as well. The pick remained idle just twice (2029 & 2039.) It fell to the fifth overall selection once (2026,) the sixth overall pick seven times and the seventh selection (the lowest the pick can go,) six times. It holds an average pick selection of 5.3 which puts in in line as the fourth best (as it goes third, second and first in that order.)
The fifth pre-lottery projection falls in line with the third overall pick in terms of overall movement. It has fallen just a combined nine times for an average fall rate of -0.45. It has given us the first overall pick twice, both within the last five seasons (2039 & 2042.) From there it moved to the second overall pick three times (2032, 2034 & 2038.) It moved to the third overall pick just once (2037) and the fourth overall pick just once (2024.) The pick has also never once in 20 seasons, stayed the same. It fell to the sixth pick once (2026,) the seventh pick seven times and the eight pick (the lowest it can go,) four times. It has an average pick selection of 5.45.
The sixth projection is an interesting one because over 20 seasons, it has a net movement of zero. This means that the lottery system is doing its job. It has given us the first pick twice (2029 & 2036.)
From there, the seventh projection is the first projection that offers a positive movement, although slightly. Overall 20 seasons, it has moved positively 14 times for an average rise rate of 0.7 and an average pick selection of 6.3.
The eighth projection continues the trend of positive movement, moving a combined 24 times for an average rise rate of 1.2. This is mostly impart to the more recent lotteries where it has given us the first overall selection twice (2041 & 2043) and moved to the fourth pick in 2042. It holds an average pick of 6.8.
The ninth projection is one of three projections that has never awarded the first overall pick to this point. It has moved a combined 19 times for an average rise rate of 0.95 and an average pick selection of 8.05. However, the highest this pick as ever reached was third overall. It has done that three times (2029, 2040 & 2043.)
The tenth pick continues to offer a positive movement, moving a combined 16 times for an average rise rant of 0.8 and an average pick selection of 9.2. It granted the first overall pick once, in the first season (2024.) From there, it awarded the second overall pick twice (2031 & 2040.)
Moving on, just like the sixth overall projection, the 11th overall projection has evened out, with a zero overall movement in 20 seasons. The pick has jumped just once in 20 seasons however, resulting in the second overall pick in 2035. From there, it either stayed the same or fell a placement or two.
The 12th projection actually holds the worst average pick selection at 11.9. It has moved a total of two times overall in 20 seasons for a rise rate of just 0.1. It has never awarded the first overall selection and like the 11th overall projection, has jumped just once, to the fourth overall selection in 2033. So in 19 seasons, it has either remained the same or fell to the 13th overall pick.
Now onto the 13th overall projection. This selection has granted us the first overall selection three times, placing it second most overall with the second overall projection. So essentially though 20 seasons, the second overall projection and the 13th overall projection have had the same chance of getting the first overall pick and it has bested the first overall projection twice over. It has the largest overall movement of 76 places with an average rise rate of 3.8. This puts its overall pick selection at 9.2. On top of offering the first overall pick three times, it granted the second overall pick twice (2033 & 2039) and the fourth overall pick twice (2031 & 2034.)
Now onto team movements.
The Boston Celtics remain the king of the lottery, even from our past article eight seasons ago. Over ninth lotteries, they have jumped a total of 34 placements, for an average rate of 3.8. In the past three lotteries they moved up one spot on 2031, remained idle in 2042 and jumped six places this past season.
The Sacramento Kings are right behind them and for most of the past eight seasons, topped the Celtics as the kings (no pun intended) of the lottery. They have moved a total of 27 times in eight lotteries for an average rate of 3.375. As of late, they moved up seven placements in 2041 and four in 2042, although falling two placements this past lottery.
The Utah Jazz (if they hold their pick or not,) are the third team to top an average rise rate of three. They have moved positively 30 placements in ten lotteries. Most of that was a two year span (2038 & 2039) where they moved 23 total placements (from 13 to 1 and 13 to 2.)
The Philadelphia 76ers come fourth in terms of positive draft movement, appearing in eight lotteries and moving positively 20 overall times for an average rise rate of 2.5. In 2030 they moved up seven placements, nine placements in 2034 and eight placements in 2040.
The Atlanta Hawks round out the top five. Moving a combined 19 placements forward in ten lotteries for an average rise rate of 1.9. Actually in ten lotteries, they fell just three times and had big movements in 2033 and 2035.
Now for the bad.
Technically the Indiana Pacers have the worst lottery luck, falling a combined five spots in two lotteries. Again, it was just two lotteries so let's move on.
The San Antonio Spurs continue to be the step-child of the BSL draft lottery system. In ten lotteries, they have fallen a combined 24 placements, for an average fall rate of -2.4. They have fallen in nine-out-of-ten lotteries and remained idle once (2039.) They have never once gained a placement in ten lotteries.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are next in line but again, we've seen them in just three lotteries where they fell twice and remained idle once. We'll move on from them.
The Washington Wizards are next on our list, falling a combined 11 times in seven lotteries. Much like the Spurs, the Wizards have never once jumped in any lottery they appeared in. They have remained idle twice in their last two lottery appearances (2040 & 2041) however.
The Milwaukee Bucks have fallen a combined 14 times in nine lotteries. They did gain one placement in the first ever lottery but beyond that, fell in seven-of-their-next-eight, while remaining idle once (2027.)
From there, every other team has had at least one positive movement of at least two or more. That goes to show the Spurs luck as well. As just the Wizards joining them as teams to have never moved and the Bucks who moved, but only one placement.
We'll begin with the basics. Per the BSL website, the odds per pick are as follows.
Now, for the actual results
The first overall pick in any draft is arguably one of the most coveted pieces possible in BSL. In doing so, teams fight for the best possible pre-draft position. From there, a custom lottery system is used to determine the draft order, in which you can find above. Now, the top projected spot in a place most people want to find themselves. However, data suggests otherwise. In 20 lotteries, the first overall projection has landed the top pick just one time (2030.) In 20 seasons, it has fallen to the second pick just once as well (2042.) It then fell to third pick just twice (2038 & 2041.) The top odds has fallen to the fourth pick four times and the fifth spot (the lowest it can go,) 11 times. Through 20 lotteries, the top projected spot has fallen a combined 65 places with an average fall rate of -3.25. So therefore, the top projected spot has an average pick placement of 4.25
It gets a bit better, but not much, for the second overall projection. In 20 lotteries, the second overall projection has landed the top spot three times. That actually took place in three consecutive seasons (2032-2034.) From there, it held idle at the second overall pick just twice, in the second and third season (2025 & 2026.) It fell to the third pick just twice as well (2027 & 2042.) From there, it fell to the fourth pick twice (2040 & 2043,) the fifth pick five times and the sixth pick (the lowest it can go,) six times. This puts an overall fall of -42 placements and an average fall rate of -2.1. The second overall projection has a average pick of 4.1, bettering the first overall projection.
Of the top three picks, the third overall projection is so far the best spot to be. It had resulted in the first overall selection 4 times (2026, 2027, 2035 & 2037.) This makes it the pre-draft lottery placement with the most first overall selections. From there, it had jumped to the second overall selection four times (2024, 2028, 2029 and 2041.) The pick remained idle three times (2030, 2038 & 2039.) It fell to the fourth overall selection just once (2036.) It fell to the fifth overall pick twice (2032 & 2042) and the sixth pick five times. The furthest the pick can fall is the seventh overall selection and it did that just once (2031.) Combined, the third overall projection has fallen a combined 12 times and has an average fall rate of -0.6 Much better than the selections we're highlighted to this point. The third overall projection has an average selection of 3.6, again, the best to this point and the best overall. From a pre-lottery standpoint, the third projection is where you want to be.
Things get worse for the fourth overall projection as it has fallen a combined 26 placements in 20 lotteries and has an average fall rate of -1.3. It also has resulted in the first overall selection just one time (2034.) This projection has moved to the second overall selection just once as well (2043.) It moved up one spot to the third overall selection just two times (2025 & 2034) as well. The pick remained idle just twice (2029 & 2039.) It fell to the fifth overall selection once (2026,) the sixth overall pick seven times and the seventh selection (the lowest the pick can go,) six times. It holds an average pick selection of 5.3 which puts in in line as the fourth best (as it goes third, second and first in that order.)
The fifth pre-lottery projection falls in line with the third overall pick in terms of overall movement. It has fallen just a combined nine times for an average fall rate of -0.45. It has given us the first overall pick twice, both within the last five seasons (2039 & 2042.) From there it moved to the second overall pick three times (2032, 2034 & 2038.) It moved to the third overall pick just once (2037) and the fourth overall pick just once (2024.) The pick has also never once in 20 seasons, stayed the same. It fell to the sixth pick once (2026,) the seventh pick seven times and the eight pick (the lowest it can go,) four times. It has an average pick selection of 5.45.
The sixth projection is an interesting one because over 20 seasons, it has a net movement of zero. This means that the lottery system is doing its job. It has given us the first pick twice (2029 & 2036.)
From there, the seventh projection is the first projection that offers a positive movement, although slightly. Overall 20 seasons, it has moved positively 14 times for an average rise rate of 0.7 and an average pick selection of 6.3.
The eighth projection continues the trend of positive movement, moving a combined 24 times for an average rise rate of 1.2. This is mostly impart to the more recent lotteries where it has given us the first overall selection twice (2041 & 2043) and moved to the fourth pick in 2042. It holds an average pick of 6.8.
The ninth projection is one of three projections that has never awarded the first overall pick to this point. It has moved a combined 19 times for an average rise rate of 0.95 and an average pick selection of 8.05. However, the highest this pick as ever reached was third overall. It has done that three times (2029, 2040 & 2043.)
The tenth pick continues to offer a positive movement, moving a combined 16 times for an average rise rant of 0.8 and an average pick selection of 9.2. It granted the first overall pick once, in the first season (2024.) From there, it awarded the second overall pick twice (2031 & 2040.)
Moving on, just like the sixth overall projection, the 11th overall projection has evened out, with a zero overall movement in 20 seasons. The pick has jumped just once in 20 seasons however, resulting in the second overall pick in 2035. From there, it either stayed the same or fell a placement or two.
The 12th projection actually holds the worst average pick selection at 11.9. It has moved a total of two times overall in 20 seasons for a rise rate of just 0.1. It has never awarded the first overall selection and like the 11th overall projection, has jumped just once, to the fourth overall selection in 2033. So in 19 seasons, it has either remained the same or fell to the 13th overall pick.
Now onto the 13th overall projection. This selection has granted us the first overall selection three times, placing it second most overall with the second overall projection. So essentially though 20 seasons, the second overall projection and the 13th overall projection have had the same chance of getting the first overall pick and it has bested the first overall projection twice over. It has the largest overall movement of 76 places with an average rise rate of 3.8. This puts its overall pick selection at 9.2. On top of offering the first overall pick three times, it granted the second overall pick twice (2033 & 2039) and the fourth overall pick twice (2031 & 2034.)
The Boston Celtics remain the king of the lottery, even from our past article eight seasons ago. Over ninth lotteries, they have jumped a total of 34 placements, for an average rate of 3.8. In the past three lotteries they moved up one spot on 2031, remained idle in 2042 and jumped six places this past season.
The Sacramento Kings are right behind them and for most of the past eight seasons, topped the Celtics as the kings (no pun intended) of the lottery. They have moved a total of 27 times in eight lotteries for an average rate of 3.375. As of late, they moved up seven placements in 2041 and four in 2042, although falling two placements this past lottery.
The Utah Jazz (if they hold their pick or not,) are the third team to top an average rise rate of three. They have moved positively 30 placements in ten lotteries. Most of that was a two year span (2038 & 2039) where they moved 23 total placements (from 13 to 1 and 13 to 2.)
The Philadelphia 76ers come fourth in terms of positive draft movement, appearing in eight lotteries and moving positively 20 overall times for an average rise rate of 2.5. In 2030 they moved up seven placements, nine placements in 2034 and eight placements in 2040.
The Atlanta Hawks round out the top five. Moving a combined 19 placements forward in ten lotteries for an average rise rate of 1.9. Actually in ten lotteries, they fell just three times and had big movements in 2033 and 2035.
Now for the bad.
Technically the Indiana Pacers have the worst lottery luck, falling a combined five spots in two lotteries. Again, it was just two lotteries so let's move on.
The San Antonio Spurs continue to be the step-child of the BSL draft lottery system. In ten lotteries, they have fallen a combined 24 placements, for an average fall rate of -2.4. They have fallen in nine-out-of-ten lotteries and remained idle once (2039.) They have never once gained a placement in ten lotteries.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are next in line but again, we've seen them in just three lotteries where they fell twice and remained idle once. We'll move on from them.
The Washington Wizards are next on our list, falling a combined 11 times in seven lotteries. Much like the Spurs, the Wizards have never once jumped in any lottery they appeared in. They have remained idle twice in their last two lottery appearances (2040 & 2041) however.
The Milwaukee Bucks have fallen a combined 14 times in nine lotteries. They did gain one placement in the first ever lottery but beyond that, fell in seven-of-their-next-eight, while remaining idle once (2027.)
From there, every other team has had at least one positive movement of at least two or more. That goes to show the Spurs luck as well. As just the Wizards joining them as teams to have never moved and the Bucks who moved, but only one placement.