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I've always been interested and therefore intrigued by the results of the draft lottery system that has been put into place here for BSL. Therefore, I took the time to go through each of the past 12 draft lotterys that we have seen during this interested and attempted to figure out what is the ideal landing spot in pre-lottery odds and which teams have reaped the benefits of this potentially flawed system.
We'll begin with the basics. Per the BSL website, the odds per pick are as follows.
Now, for the actual results.
The first overall selection is arguably the most coveted thing in BSL and with that, comes the race to be the worst team following the season for the "best" odds in landing such a selection. However, in 12 runnings of this lottery system, the team with the worst record has secured the first overall selection once (Atlanta Hawks in 2030.) That puts out sample size at a 8.3% hit rate. That same "top odds" selection has never once fallen to the second overall pick. Therefore, the 9.8% odds in our threshold is zero-percent. That selection has fallen to third overall just once. Again, a 8.3% hit. From there, it has fallen to fourth overall twice, a 16.7% hit rate. To no one's surprise, the "top odds" has fallen to as low as it possibly can go, the fifth overall selection, ten-of-12 times. So, the worst team, be our small sample size here, has a 92% chance of falling. In all, this selection averages a drop rate of three-placements in the lottery and has dropped a combined 36 places across 12 lotteries.
Up until recently, the second best odds was not much better. However, in each of the last three runnings of the lottery, the second worst team has moved up to the first overall selection (2032-2034.) Still, in terms of drop rates, this is the second most dropped selection (although significantly) to the first overall odds. The second pick has also remained idle twice in 12 lotteries. It has dropped to fifth overall twice and sixth overall three times. It averages a drop rate of 1.3 spots and has dropped a combined 16 places.
Of the top three pre-draft lottery placements, the third overall placement may be the best place to be. It has moved to the first overall selection two times (2026 & 2027) and has moved to second overall three times. It has also remained idle once (2030.) It has also made the largest possible drop (-4) just once (2031.) This selection averages a drop rate of -0.7 spots and has dropped a total of eight places in 12 lotteries.
The fourth and fifth pre-lottery placements too hold a negative drop rate, both larger than the third-overall placement. The fourth placement holds a drop rate of 0.9 places for a total of 11 total placement drops and the fifth placement holds a drop rate of -0.8 placements, for a total of ten placements. The fourth placement has moved to the first overall selection just once as the fifth placement has never held the first overall pick. Additionally, the fourth placement has never once moved to the second overall pick as the fifth placement has moved to the second overall selection twice.
From there, the sixth placement holds a positive drop rate, or we'll call it a rising rate, of 0.3 placements for a total of four in the right direction. The sixth placement saw the first overall pick in 2029 and a second overall in 2034. The seventh placement is essentially dead space. The highest anyone in the seventh placement has made it was second overall in 2030 and third overall in 2032. Beyond a fourth overall selection 2025, it annually drops a placement-or-two each season.
The eight placement is a bit of the same, seeing a rising rate of just 0.2 placements. It too has never produced a first overall selection, although it did get to second overall in 2027 and third overall in 2026. That's about it.
The ninth placement, thanks to a run of picks between 2028 and 2030 (moving up five, five and six respectively) has seen a rising rate of 0.8 placements for a total of ten. Outside of those two fourth place selections and one third place selection, there isn't much more to talk about.
The tenth placement continues on with the same mid-range selection. It reached first overall in the first running of this lottery in 2024 and reach second overall in 2031. Beyond those two mass movements, it annually is a selection that either remains idle or moves backwards a spot-or-two.
The 11th placement may be the worst one of the bunch. It is the only pick outside of the top five to hold a fall rate (at -0.6 placements) and has never made a movement forward. That is correct, the 11th overall pick has never once jumped in the lottery. In 12 runnings it has not once jumped.
The 12th placement saw a jump to fourth overall in 2033 and beyond that, holds a very similar story to the 11th overall pick.
Now, onto the grand-daddy of them all. The 13th overall placement is the place to be. In 12 lotteries, it has jumped five times. A hit rate of 42-percent. It holds a rising rate of 4.2 placements and has moved 53 placements over the span of 12 seasons. The 13th placement has produced the first overall pick two times (2025 & 2028,) the second overall pick once (2033) and the fourth overall pick twice (2031 & 2034.)
Now, onto what teams have done the best and the worst when it comes to this lottery system.
The Sacramento Kings have been the biggest benefactors of this lottery system. Although appearing just twice, the team saw two movements of +5 in 2027 and +12 in 2028 for a rate of 8.5 placements per lottery. The Kings used the rise from 13 to 1 in 2028 to select future BSL Champion Gunna Ra first overall.
Although statistically speaking the Kings may have had the best luck, we all know the Boston Celtics have made the most of this lottery system. The Celtics have appeared in the lottery five times rising at least five places in three of them. They started this iteration moving from tenth to one in 2024 and followed that up by moving from 13th to first in 2025. They selected Isaiah Collier in 2024 and Cooper Flagg in 2025. From there, the Celtics moved from 13th to second in 2033. The Celtics had gained 30 placements in the lottery, nearly doubling the second place team (Kings with 17.)
The Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets have both used two big jumped to put them third and fourth on our list. The 76ers moved from 11th to fourth in 2030 and also moved from 13th to fourth last season. Although the team has never made the jump into the top three, it still has seen massive rises in the lottery. The 76ers have rose an average of 3.5 places per lottery they have appeared in. The Nuggets moved from ninth to fourth in 2028 and 13th to fourth in 2031, putting their rise average of 2.4 placements.
The Golden State Warriors is the last team with a rise rate over two, moving up five and three spots in 2030 and 2031 respectively.
Now, onto the most unlucky teams in this draft lottery.
The San Antonio Spurs have appeared in five lotteries and have not only never moved up in the final results, have also never remained idle at their projected placement. The Spurs have fallen a combined 14 places over five lotteries
From there, the Washington Wizards are also in the same boat as the Spurs. The Wizards have also never gained a spot in the final results but have also never remained idle at their projected pick. The Wizards have lost a total of ten placements in four lotteries.
The Chicago Bulls join the list of teams that have never gained a placement in the lottery but did remain idle in 2032, putting them at a total of ten placements lost in five lotteries.
The list of other teams that have never gained a spot in the final results include the Minnesota Timberwolves (three lotteries,) Phoenix Suns (four lotteries,) Houston Rockets (four lotteries) and Miami Heat (five lotteries.)
We'll begin with the basics. Per the BSL website, the odds per pick are as follows.
Now, for the actual results.
The first overall selection is arguably the most coveted thing in BSL and with that, comes the race to be the worst team following the season for the "best" odds in landing such a selection. However, in 12 runnings of this lottery system, the team with the worst record has secured the first overall selection once (Atlanta Hawks in 2030.) That puts out sample size at a 8.3% hit rate. That same "top odds" selection has never once fallen to the second overall pick. Therefore, the 9.8% odds in our threshold is zero-percent. That selection has fallen to third overall just once. Again, a 8.3% hit. From there, it has fallen to fourth overall twice, a 16.7% hit rate. To no one's surprise, the "top odds" has fallen to as low as it possibly can go, the fifth overall selection, ten-of-12 times. So, the worst team, be our small sample size here, has a 92% chance of falling. In all, this selection averages a drop rate of three-placements in the lottery and has dropped a combined 36 places across 12 lotteries.
Up until recently, the second best odds was not much better. However, in each of the last three runnings of the lottery, the second worst team has moved up to the first overall selection (2032-2034.) Still, in terms of drop rates, this is the second most dropped selection (although significantly) to the first overall odds. The second pick has also remained idle twice in 12 lotteries. It has dropped to fifth overall twice and sixth overall three times. It averages a drop rate of 1.3 spots and has dropped a combined 16 places.
Of the top three pre-draft lottery placements, the third overall placement may be the best place to be. It has moved to the first overall selection two times (2026 & 2027) and has moved to second overall three times. It has also remained idle once (2030.) It has also made the largest possible drop (-4) just once (2031.) This selection averages a drop rate of -0.7 spots and has dropped a total of eight places in 12 lotteries.
The fourth and fifth pre-lottery placements too hold a negative drop rate, both larger than the third-overall placement. The fourth placement holds a drop rate of 0.9 places for a total of 11 total placement drops and the fifth placement holds a drop rate of -0.8 placements, for a total of ten placements. The fourth placement has moved to the first overall selection just once as the fifth placement has never held the first overall pick. Additionally, the fourth placement has never once moved to the second overall pick as the fifth placement has moved to the second overall selection twice.
From there, the sixth placement holds a positive drop rate, or we'll call it a rising rate, of 0.3 placements for a total of four in the right direction. The sixth placement saw the first overall pick in 2029 and a second overall in 2034. The seventh placement is essentially dead space. The highest anyone in the seventh placement has made it was second overall in 2030 and third overall in 2032. Beyond a fourth overall selection 2025, it annually drops a placement-or-two each season.
The eight placement is a bit of the same, seeing a rising rate of just 0.2 placements. It too has never produced a first overall selection, although it did get to second overall in 2027 and third overall in 2026. That's about it.
The ninth placement, thanks to a run of picks between 2028 and 2030 (moving up five, five and six respectively) has seen a rising rate of 0.8 placements for a total of ten. Outside of those two fourth place selections and one third place selection, there isn't much more to talk about.
The tenth placement continues on with the same mid-range selection. It reached first overall in the first running of this lottery in 2024 and reach second overall in 2031. Beyond those two mass movements, it annually is a selection that either remains idle or moves backwards a spot-or-two.
The 11th placement may be the worst one of the bunch. It is the only pick outside of the top five to hold a fall rate (at -0.6 placements) and has never made a movement forward. That is correct, the 11th overall pick has never once jumped in the lottery. In 12 runnings it has not once jumped.
The 12th placement saw a jump to fourth overall in 2033 and beyond that, holds a very similar story to the 11th overall pick.
Now, onto the grand-daddy of them all. The 13th overall placement is the place to be. In 12 lotteries, it has jumped five times. A hit rate of 42-percent. It holds a rising rate of 4.2 placements and has moved 53 placements over the span of 12 seasons. The 13th placement has produced the first overall pick two times (2025 & 2028,) the second overall pick once (2033) and the fourth overall pick twice (2031 & 2034.)
The Sacramento Kings have been the biggest benefactors of this lottery system. Although appearing just twice, the team saw two movements of +5 in 2027 and +12 in 2028 for a rate of 8.5 placements per lottery. The Kings used the rise from 13 to 1 in 2028 to select future BSL Champion Gunna Ra first overall.
Although statistically speaking the Kings may have had the best luck, we all know the Boston Celtics have made the most of this lottery system. The Celtics have appeared in the lottery five times rising at least five places in three of them. They started this iteration moving from tenth to one in 2024 and followed that up by moving from 13th to first in 2025. They selected Isaiah Collier in 2024 and Cooper Flagg in 2025. From there, the Celtics moved from 13th to second in 2033. The Celtics had gained 30 placements in the lottery, nearly doubling the second place team (Kings with 17.)
The Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets have both used two big jumped to put them third and fourth on our list. The 76ers moved from 11th to fourth in 2030 and also moved from 13th to fourth last season. Although the team has never made the jump into the top three, it still has seen massive rises in the lottery. The 76ers have rose an average of 3.5 places per lottery they have appeared in. The Nuggets moved from ninth to fourth in 2028 and 13th to fourth in 2031, putting their rise average of 2.4 placements.
The Golden State Warriors is the last team with a rise rate over two, moving up five and three spots in 2030 and 2031 respectively.
Now, onto the most unlucky teams in this draft lottery.
The San Antonio Spurs have appeared in five lotteries and have not only never moved up in the final results, have also never remained idle at their projected placement. The Spurs have fallen a combined 14 places over five lotteries
From there, the Washington Wizards are also in the same boat as the Spurs. The Wizards have also never gained a spot in the final results but have also never remained idle at their projected pick. The Wizards have lost a total of ten placements in four lotteries.
The Chicago Bulls join the list of teams that have never gained a placement in the lottery but did remain idle in 2032, putting them at a total of ten placements lost in five lotteries.
The list of other teams that have never gained a spot in the final results include the Minnesota Timberwolves (three lotteries,) Phoenix Suns (four lotteries,) Houston Rockets (four lotteries) and Miami Heat (five lotteries.)
